Smiling Faces Sometimes

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Odds on Acquittal

I'm curious if any bookmakers are taking bets on the outcome of this trial and if so, what those odds are. I doubt that Paul Bergrin would consider the concept to be offensive; at least I did not in my own trial. It's tough to bet on how a jury will perceive and interpret the evidence in the government's case, especially in a prosecution as voluminous as this one, though it lacked factual evidence as RICO conspiracy trials often do.

We watched a parade of criminal informants, government agents, and witnesses that actually witnessed nothing at all as the government presented its case for almost 8 weeks. Every single one of the government witnesses have something to gain, even the participating agents. Think about it... Brokos, and every agent involved, could be demoted, investigated, or even retired in shame if Paul Bergrin is acquitted on all counts. The amount of money that the government sunk into this fiasco is unimaginable.

Paul Bergrin put on the best defense possible when considering that his hands have been tied behind his back. He was left with no money to pay for the experts he truly needed and begins his day long before the government participants climb out of bed. I seriously doubt that Paul has had even six hours sleep nightly since this trial began. He does have many people that have supported him in various roles throughout this trial and long before it started though.

The many people that have contacted me over the last two years + have expressed their admiration and support for Paul Bergrin for the most part. From my perspective, the government and its representatives sit almost alone, with little support outside of their own circles. From what I have heard, even many AUSAs in other areas of the country admire and support Paul. You must remember: Paul Bergrin was once an AUSA himself.

So what are the odds?

Well, that depends on what we are betting on here. If the bet was acquittal or conviction only on all counts charged, I will step outside the box here and confidently state that it is 95% in favor of acquittal on all counts. Really I do not even want to give prosecutors the 5% because the odds of Paul being convicted on any counts at all does not even reach that little 5% when considering that AUSA Minish had the audacity to refer to Oscar the informant as a solid witness in his closing. Really such a statement is insulting to jurors.

However, the odds change substantially when considering the possibility of a hung jury on any count or all counts. I have not heard anything whatsoever about the jury except what I read in a couple of articles. I have not even asked one of my many contacts the ratio of males/females on the jury. I do not ask because I do not want to know. I will have to assume that Paul Bergrin knows how to pick a jury.

Considering the possibilities of a hung jury on all counts is extremely involved. I'd almost have to see the jurors to make such a call. Sometimes I can feel people - a reference to how a person thinks, life experiences in their past, how a person will react in certain situations, or what a person is thinking. Certainly such a statement alludes to a psychic ability and you may take that or leave it; it doesn't matter to me. No way I'd even do a reading for Paul Bergrin without being in his presence and touching him, so no, I haven't had a look at the cards.

I'm not so sure I could even offer odds on a hung jury on any count or all counts from where I'm sitting. I'm also not sure that I'd want to. To imagine Paul Bergrin having to go through this all over again is simply too much.

The summations have concluded by now and this case has gone to the jury. The jurors were there and know better than anyone else what is right. Each juror is entrusted with Paul Bergrin's life. They listened and they watched and they know who was lying, who was telling the truth, who was questionable, who had something to gain, and who didn't.

I only ask that anyone reading this blog trust the verdicts and not question or disparage the jurors for any decision at all in this case. I may post again later tonight or in the days ahead... depends how long the deliberations are. For the moment, it is a time of reflection for me. Almost holding my breath here...


paul said...

On a mistrial, little chance prossies get another trial.

Vicky Gallas said...

I do not believe that at all. This is actually the first trial for all counts. The last trial was just on the Kemo related counts. Prosecutors never (or rarely) give-up after one shot, though they may drop the Kemo counts if it happens.

I just hope it doesn't happen. ;)

barry crimm said...

The funny thing about the parade of miscreants your post cites is that in state court their testimony would not be allowed. Only in federal court is uncorroborated (i.e. blatantly perjurious)witness testimony permitted. The rules of federal evidence STRONGLY favor the prosecution. Nevertheless, the prosecutors in this matter never laid a hand on Bergrin. Let's just hope the jurors are able to see the obvious.

Vicky Gallas said...

Perhaps they wouldn't be allowed in a NJ state court, but prosecutors send in the same sort of parade of miscreants in Florida courts all the time. The Innocence Project has really had their work cut out for them down here and juries often believe cops just because they're cops. At least most people in NJ are more intelligent than that. lol

I think these jurors can see and I think they were all wide awake. I'd like to read a book (or a few) written from the jury perspective in this case. I'd like to read something from the hung jury in the last trial - so where is it? Perhaps once it's all over...

I'd even appreciate a book from one of the prosecutors on this case. I'd like to know the real perspective on various issues, like Oscar for example, and assume it to be different than the trial portrayal.