Odds on Acquittal

I'm curious if any bookmakers are taking bets on the outcome of this trial and if so, what those odds are. I doubt that Paul Bergrin would consider the concept to be offensive; at least I did not in my own trial. It's tough to bet on how a jury will perceive and interpret the evidence in the government's case, especially in a prosecution as voluminous as this one, though it lacked factual evidence as RICO conspiracy trials often do.

We watched a parade of criminal informants, government agents, and witnesses that actually witnessed nothing at all as the government presented its case for almost 8 weeks. Every single one of the government witnesses have something to gain, even the participating agents. Think about it... Brokos, and every agent involved, could be demoted, investigated, or even retired in shame if Paul Bergrin is acquitted on all counts. The amount of money that the government sunk into this fiasco is unimaginable.

Paul Bergrin put on the best defense possible when considering that his hands have been tied behind his back. He was left with no money to pay for the experts he truly needed and begins his day long before the government participants climb out of bed. I seriously doubt that Paul has had even six hours sleep nightly since this trial began. He does have many people that have supported him in various roles throughout this trial and long before it started though.

The many people that have contacted me over the last two years + have expressed their admiration and support for Paul Bergrin for the most part. From my perspective, the government and its representatives sit almost alone, with little support outside of their own circles. From what I have heard, even many AUSAs in other areas of the country admire and support Paul. You must remember: Paul Bergrin was once an AUSA himself.


So what are the odds?

Well, that depends on what we are betting on here. If the bet was acquittal or conviction only on all counts charged, I will step outside the box here and confidently state that it is 95% in favor of acquittal on all counts. Really I do not even want to give prosecutors the 5% because the odds of Paul being convicted on any counts at all does not even reach that little 5% when considering that AUSA Minish had the audacity to refer to Oscar the informant as a solid witness in his closing. Really such a statement is insulting to jurors.

However, the odds change substantially when considering the possibility of a hung jury on any count or all counts. I have not heard anything whatsoever about the jury except what I read in a couple of NorthJersey.com articles. I have not even asked one of my many contacts the ratio of males/females on the jury. I do not ask because I do not want to know. I will have to assume that Paul Bergrin knows how to pick a jury.

Considering the possibilities of a hung jury on all counts is extremely involved. I'd almost have to see the jurors to make such a call. Sometimes I can feel people - a reference to how a person thinks, life experiences in their past, how a person will react in certain situations, or what a person is thinking. Certainly such a statement alludes to a psychic ability and you may take that or leave it; it doesn't matter to me. No way I'd even do a reading for Paul Bergrin without being in his presence and touching him, so no, I haven't had a look at the cards.

I'm not so sure I could even offer odds on a hung jury on any count or all counts from where I'm sitting. I'm also not sure that I'd want to. To imagine Paul Bergrin having to go through this all over again is simply too much.

The summations have concluded by now and this case has gone to the jury. The jurors were there and know better than anyone else what is right. Each juror is entrusted with Paul Bergrin's life. They listened and they watched and they know who was lying, who was telling the truth, who was questionable, who had something to gain, and who didn't.

I only ask that anyone reading this blog trust the verdicts and not question or disparage the jurors for any decision at all in this case. I may post again later tonight or in the days ahead... depends how long the deliberations are. For the moment, it is a time of reflection for me. Almost holding my breath here...

Summary of Recent Events

This is just a quick summary of the events in the Paul Bergrin trial yesterday and today. I will try and post a more thorough analysis late tonight and if I'm not able, then tomorrow. Really I am in the middle of cooking dinner at the moment and after that I'll be tired. Yeah I know... TMI.

Natalie McLennan (of New York Confidential fame) testified late in the day yesterday and returned to the stand today. I suspect this is a main reason that the clerk did not post the Minutes from 6 February until today, though I am not clear on why this went unreported in mainstream news by a reporter that is present in the courtroom daily. Needless to say, I smell a rat.

If I had known of specific statements by McLennan, the chances are good that I would have a lengthy response in time for her cross-examination today. There does seem to be an argument going on as to the definition of an "escort service" and a "brothel" and that is something I will address in my next post.

We must wonder if Natalie is supposed to be some sort of substitute for Jason Itzler as bringing him in from his prison in NY is unlikely to help prosecutors. Natalie did make a plea deal in her own case. Ah well, I'll refrain from further discussion until I have a better understanding of her testimony.

I posted a document titled, "Bergrin Trial Letters 7 February 2013," that is over 6MB in size and certainly worth reading. To summarize it quickly for you:

Paul Bergrin: I demand all of the exculpatory evidence that the government has hidden or has otherwise disposed of in relation to a list of witnesses and including conversations recorded in Hudson County Corrections involving Alejandro Barraza-Castro and Yolanda Jauregui in relation to a big cocaine deal they were attempting.

Government Prosecutors: FU. You will never see the exculpatory evidence that you are demanding and we will justify anything we do as we always do. Additionally, you will need to subpoena the recordings from Hudson County Corrections as we have no interest in any because they do not further our agenda, and good luck with that. Furthermore, we never gave any of our witnesses polygraph examinations because we already know they're all a bunch of no-good liars, career criminals, and criminal informants.


On that note, I must return to cooking dinner.


EDIT 8 February 2013 @1:10am EST:

I have been reading about this major storm expected in the Northeastern US, including New Jersey, and must imagine that there will be no court today. According to the news this looks like a bad one and people are advised to stay at home. *sigh* I miss weather like that, believe it or not. It was 80+ degrees here today on Florida's Space Coast and no change is expected in the near future.

I lived in the Lake Mohawk / Sparta area for some time after my acquittal back in 2003. I never intended to see Florida again; however, my son was born and raised in a tropical climate and hated it there - Winter of 2003 was a cold time, freezing temperatures, a blizzard etc...  I was not all that fond of Sparta and preferred Hackensack, where my friend had lived previously.

Driving in snow conditions was never an issue for me as I learned to drive in Germany, where they do not salt the roads because of potential damage. I learned to drive on black ice, literally. Still, it can be dangerous if you don't know what you're doing. I wish all readers and supporters of Paul Bergrin a safe long weekend. Charge your phones and devices, just in case, and stay safe.